Global Markets • Middle East
Brent Crude Just Crossed $100 a Barrel Again. The Iran War in the Strait of Hormuz Is the Reason Your Fuel Bill in Pakistan Just Went Up
9 September 2026
Brent crude, the international oil-price benchmark, has crossed $100 a barrel for the first time since 24 July 2026, after a week of escalation in the Iran-Israel-US war in the Middle East. US Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude tankers near the Kharg Island export hub over the weekend, in response to an attempted Iranian ballistic-missile strike on a US Navy warship. Iran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at the US Al-Azraq base in Jordan and warning all tanker crews near Kuwaiti and Bahraini piers to abandon their vessels, and Houthi forces in Yemen attacked four Saudi Arabian cities, including the Jazan refinery. The combined effect is a sustained risk premium on global oil trade, and the price is being passed through to Pakistani consumers in 24 hours under the new daily-pricing mechanism.
What just happened in the oil market
Brent crude rose to $100.07 a barrel in early trading on 9 September, up $2.15 or 2.2 per cent on the day. The move took Brent back above the symbolic $100 mark for the first time since 24 July. West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, was up $1.70 to $94.73 a barrel. UAE crude, the grade most relevant to Pakistan’s imports, was $110.77 a barrel. The price has risen by a quarter since early August, as hopes for a permanent resolution to the six-month-old war faded.
The proximate cause of the move was the US destruction of five Iranian tankers near Kharg Island, the principal export hub for Iranian crude. The Iranian tankers were carrying crude, not refined products, and the strikes were carried out in response to an attempted Iranian ballistic-missile strike on a US Navy warship in the Gulf of Oman. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened in response that all tanker crews near Kuwaiti and Bahraini piers should “immediately abandon their vessels, whether at anchor or docked, as they will be targeted.”
Iran then fired ballistic missiles at the US Al-Azraq base in Jordan, hitting two US Navy destroyers and the F-35 and F-15 hangars. The IRGC also seized a US submarine drone in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating the risk premium on tanker traffic through the strait. Houthi forces in Yemen, Iran’s proxy, attacked four Saudi Arabian cities the same week — Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan, and Najran — wounding more than 70 civilians and setting oil installations at the Jazan refinery ablaze.
Why the Strait of Hormuz matters to Pakistan
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Roughly 10 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait every day, mostly from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran. Pakistan is a net importer of crude oil, and the bulk of Pakistani crude imports transit the strait on their way to the Karachi port and the Pak-Arab Refinery at Mahmood Kot.
Disruption of tanker traffic through the strait has a direct effect on the ex-refinery import price that Ogra uses as the basis for the daily ex-depot price notification. The 8-9 September hikes at the pump — Rs 12.90 plus Rs 5.58 for petrol, and Rs 3.72 plus Rs 4.18 for diesel — are the cumulative impact of the current risk premium on tanker traffic through the strait.
The disruption is not yet a closure. The strait remains open, and daily flows remain at roughly 10 million barrels. Vitol Group, the world’s largest independent oil trader, said at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference on 8 September that crude flows remain normal in volume but are now being routed on tankers with their transponders switched off, which is itself a sign of the risk premium.
What the market is pricing in
The market is currently pricing in three things. First, the risk of a wider regional war. The Saudi-led coalition has announced a firm response to the Houthi attacks, and the Iran-Oman deal on managing shipping through the strait is imminent but not yet concluded. Second, the disruption to Iranian crude exports. The US blockade of Iranian ports, in force since the start of the war, has already cut Iranian exports, and the latest tanker strikes reduce Iran’s ability to export crude on its own fleet. Third, the broader inflationary impact. Higher oil prices feed into transport, food, and energy costs across the global economy.
Brent is now up more than 30 per cent since the US and Israel first attacked Iran in late February 2026, although it is well below the high of $126 a barrel reached in April during the worst of the conflict. The April peak was followed by a partial retracement on ceasefire hopes. The current run-up reflects the failure of those hopes and the resumption of full-scale fighting.
The Iran war in brief
The current round of the Iran war began in late February 2026, with US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure. Iran retaliated with attacks on US bases in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan, and with a missile and drone campaign that closed the Strait of Hormuz for several days in March. The oil price peaked at $126 a barrel in April during the worst of the conflict. A partial ceasefire in May brought the price back below $80. The current escalation, with the US blockade of Iranian ports and the renewed fighting in the Gulf, has pushed the price back above $100.
Iran’s strategy in the war has been to raise the cost to the global economy of the US campaign. The Strait of Hormuz is the principal lever. Roughly a fifth of global seaborne oil trade passes through it. Disrupting tanker traffic, even temporarily, has an immediate effect on the global price, and the effect on Pakistan is direct.
What could change the picture
Three things could bring the oil price back down. First, a ceasefire. The US has indicated that a permanent resolution is still on the table, but the latest escalation suggests the two sides are far apart. Second, a deal on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman are close to a deal to manage shipping through the strait, including a temporary safe route, but the US has not yet endorsed the framework. Third, a release of strategic reserves. The US, the EU, and several Asian countries have strategic petroleum reserves, and a coordinated release would bring the price down. None of the three is currently imminent.
For Pakistani consumers, the practical implication is that the new daily-pricing mechanism will continue to pass through the global move in either direction. The benefits of a ceasefire, if and when one is reached, will also show up at the pump within 24 hours.
The bottom line
Brent crude is back above $100 a barrel, driven by the Iran war in the Strait of Hormuz. The proximate cause was the US destruction of five Iranian tankers and the Iranian retaliatory attacks on US bases in Jordan and the seizure of a US submarine drone. The disruption to tanker traffic through the strait, combined with the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, has built a sustained risk premium on global oil trade. Pakistan’s daily-pricing mechanism means the price move is being passed through to the pump in 24 hours. Petrol is now Rs 364.35 per litre, diesel Rs 385.95 per litre, and the cumulative increase over the last 48 hours is Rs 18.48 and Rs 7.90 respectively.
What people are asking
What is the current Brent crude oil price?
Brent crude is at $100.07 a barrel in early trading on 9 September 2026, up 2.2 per cent on the day. It is the first time Brent has crossed $100 since 24 July 2026. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is at $94.73 a barrel, and UAE crude is at $110.77 a barrel.
Why has oil crossed $100 again?
The price has crossed $100 again because of a new escalation in the Iran-Israel-US war in the Middle East. US Central Command destroyed five Iranian crude tankers near the Kharg Island export hub over the weekend, in response to an attempted Iranian ballistic-missile strike on a US Navy warship. Iran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at the US Al-Azraq base in Jordan, seizing a US submarine drone in the Strait of Hormuz, and warning all tanker crews near Kuwaiti and Bahraini piers to abandon their vessels. Houthi forces also attacked four Saudi Arabian cities, including the Jazan refinery.
What is the Strait of Hormuz and why does it matter?
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Roughly 10 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait every day, mostly from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran. Disruption of tanker traffic through the strait has a direct effect on the global oil price, and on the ex-refinery import price that Ogra uses as the basis for the daily ex-depot price notification in Pakistan.
How does the Iran war affect petrol prices in Pakistan?
Pakistan is a net importer of crude oil, and the bulk of Pakistani crude imports transit the Strait of Hormuz on their way to Karachi and the Pak-Arab Refinery. Disruption of tanker traffic through the strait has a direct effect on the ex-refinery import price, which is passed through to the pump under the new daily-pricing mechanism. The 8-9 September hikes at the pump — Rs 12.90 plus Rs 5.58 for petrol, and Rs 3.72 plus Rs 4.18 for diesel — are the cumulative impact of the current risk premium.
How high could the oil price go?
The current run-up reflects the failure of ceasefire hopes and the resumption of full-scale fighting. Brent is up more than 30 per cent since the start of the war, although it is well below the high of $126 reached in April 2026. If the strait is closed for any extended period, the price could test the April high. A coordinated release of strategic reserves by the US, the EU, and Asian countries would bring the price down.
Is the Strait of Hormuz closed?
No. The strait remains open, and daily flows remain at roughly 10 million barrels, mostly made up of crude. However, vessels now face a persistent threat of attack, and many tankers are switching off their transponders to avoid being targeted. Insurance premiums on tanker traffic through the strait have spiked, and the market is pricing in a sustained risk premium rather than a one-off shock.
What is the Pakistan daily-pricing mechanism?
Pakistan moved to a daily-pricing mechanism for petrol and high-speed diesel earlier in 2026. Under the new framework, Ogra is authorised to determine and announce ex-depot prices every 24 hours, without prior approval from the prime minister or the federal government. The mechanism is designed to pass through changes in international crude prices to Pakistani consumers more quickly.
What could bring the price down?
Three things could bring the oil price back down. First, a permanent ceasefire. Second, a deal on the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran and Oman are close to but the US has not yet endorsed. Third, a coordinated release of strategic reserves by the US, the EU, and Asian countries. None of the three is currently imminent.
