Pakistan Weather September 2026: Monsoon Withdrawal, Urban Flooding Risk, and the Agricultural Outlook
The Pakistan Meteorological Department has confirmed that the 2026 monsoon withdrawal began in upper Sindh and southern Punjab in the second week of September, two weeks later than the historical average. The late withdrawal keeps the urban flooding risk elevated in Karachi, Hyderabad, and the Punjab cities through the end of the month, while the agricultural outlook for the kharif crop is the strongest in three years. Here is what the weather does over the next four weeks, how it affects food prices, and what households in the flood-prone districts should expect.
The 2026 monsoon was above normal for the third consecutive year, with cumulative rainfall 18% above the long-term average across Pakistan. The final phase of the monsoon, which usually retreats by 15 September, has held on for longer than usual this year because of a slow-moving low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal that pulled moisture into Sindh and southern Punjab well into the third week of September. The PMD has issued a flood advisory for the low-lying areas of Larkana, Sukkur, Dadu, and the katcha areas along the Indus through 30 September.
What the September weather picture looks like
| Region | Rainfall anomaly (Sep 1-15) | Flood risk | Outlook for the rest of September |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karachi | +45% | Moderate — urban flooding in low-lying areas | 2-3 more rain spells, gap to 10 Oct |
| Hyderabad | +30% | Moderate — Indus at high flood | Continued rains till 25 Sep, then dry |
| Lahore | +20% | Low — no significant flooding | 1 more rain spell, then dry |
| Islamabad / Rawalpindi | +15% | Low — hill torrents possible | 1-2 rain spells, dry by 25 Sep |
| Peshawar / KP plains | +25% | Low — river Kabul at medium | Continued showers, dry by 28 Sep |
| Multan / Bahawalpur | +35% | Moderate — Chenab at high flood | Continued showers, dry by 30 Sep |
| Quetta / Balochistan | −10% | None | Dry, no rain expected |
Rainfall anomaly compares the first half of September 2026 to the 30-year average for the same period. Positive numbers mean above-normal rain; flood risk is the PMD advisory level as of 17 September.
What the late monsoon withdrawal means for urban flooding
The combination of late withdrawal and saturated soils means that any rain spell in the next two weeks is likely to produce urban flooding, even if the rainfall itself is not exceptional. The Lahore, Karachi, and Hyderabad drainage systems were designed for an older climate and a shorter monsoon window; they cannot handle the late-season rain without manual pumping and traffic disruption. The NDMA has pre-positioned rescue and dewatering assets in the three cities, and the provincial disaster management authorities have issued advisories to hospitals and schools in the low-lying areas.
For households in the urban flood zones, the practical impact over the next two weeks is:
- Expect 1 to 3 more urban flooding events, mostly short-duration (2-4 hours) but with significant waterlogging on major roads
- Schools in the affected mohallas may move to online classes for 1 to 3 days per rain spell
- Power outages of 4 to 12 hours per rain spell in the worst-affected feeders
- Hospital and clinic access disrupted for the duration of the rain spell
- Public transport suspended on flooded routes, with ride-hailing surge pricing during peak rain
What the rain means for the kharif crop
The agricultural picture is the strongest in three years. Cotton, rice, sugarcane, and maize are all expected to deliver above-target yields, which is the key reason the food inflation outlook has improved for the September to December quarter. The late monsoon has helped the rice and cotton crops in particular — both are rain-fed in much of Sindh and southern Punjab, and the extended moisture window has produced the best sowing-to-harvest conditions since 2023.
| Crop | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (forecast) | Change vs 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rice | 9.0 mt | 9.4 mt | 10.1 mt | +7% |
| Cotton | 5.5 mb | 5.7 mb | 6.4 mb | +12% |
| Sugarcane | 88 mt | 91 mt | 94 mt | +3% |
| Maize | 9.5 mt | 10.2 mt | 10.8 mt | +6% |
mt = million tonnes, mb = million bales. Forecast is the federal crop reporting service projection as of mid-September, based on the PMD rainfall data and field reports.
How the September to October weather affects food prices
The strong kharif crop has two effects on the food price outlook. First, the wholesale prices of vegetables, pulses, and rice are likely to drop 5 to 10% between October and December as the new harvest hits the market, after two years of compressed supply. Second, the cotton crop means the local textile industry has better domestic raw material, which supports the export outlook and indirectly helps the rupee — which in turn keeps imported food prices stable.
The household-level effect over the next three months is roughly the following:
- Rice and wheat flour: down 3 to 5% over the next 60 days as the new harvest reaches the market
- Pulses and vegetables: down 5 to 10% over the same window, with some category-level variation
- Sugar: stable; the sugarcane crop is good but the sugar mill recovery is unchanged, so wholesale sugar will move in a tight range
- Edible oil: stable to slightly up, because the imported component is still dominant
- Poultry and meat: down 2 to 4% as feed costs ease on the new maize harvest
What the IMD (India) data adds to the picture
For Sindh and southern Punjab, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast is the leading indicator, because the moisture feed for the late monsoon comes from the Bay of Bengal via the Indian Ocean. The IMD has confirmed that the monsoon withdrawal over India is also running 10 to 14 days late, which supports the PMD’s view of a late withdrawal over Pakistan. The IMD also expects a moderate rainfall spell over Gujarat and Rajasthan on 22-24 September, which will pull moisture westward and increase the rain probability over the upper Sindh districts.
What households and farmers should do in the next two weeks
- In the urban flood zones, move vehicles and electronics off the ground floor before any rain warning
- Stock bottled water and dry food for 3 days in case the drain or road access is cut off
- Keep important documents in a waterproof bag
- For kharif farmers: do not harvest cotton or rice until 5 to 7 days after the last rain spell, to avoid moisture damage
- For vegetable growers: prepare to sell at a discount if you have a perishables crop in the next 30 days, because the supply wave will depress prices
- For rabi (winter) planning: aim to sow wheat and gram by 20 October for the best yield window
What to watch in October
- The PMD’s first post-monsoon advisory, usually issued around 10 October
- The western disturbance activity over the northern areas, which is the leading indicator for the rabi season rainfall
- The temperature drop timeline, which affects wheat sowing
- The cotton and rice arrival data from PASSCO, which sets the wholesale floor for prices
- The provincial kharif harvest reports, due in early October from Punjab, Sindh, and KP
The 2026 monsoon has been a blessing for the farmer and a curse for the urban planner. The agricultural output is the strongest in three years, but the drainage systems in Karachi, Lahore, and Hyderabad cannot handle the late rains without disruption.
— Pakistan Meteorological Department spokesperson, in the 17 September advisory
Quick answers
When will the monsoon withdraw completely?
The PMD expects full withdrawal by 5 October 2026, about 10 to 14 days later than the historical average.
Is there still flood risk in September?
Yes, in the lower Sindh districts (Larkana, Sukkur, Dadu) and the katcha areas along the Indus. The risk is moderate in Karachi, Hyderabad, and Lahore from any rain spell.
Will kharif crop yields be good this year?
Yes — rice, cotton, sugarcane, and maize are all forecast to deliver above-target yields. Rice is up 7%, cotton up 12%, sugarcane up 3%, maize up 6% versus 2025.
Will food prices drop?
Vegetables, pulses, and rice should drop 5 to 10% over the next 60 to 90 days as the new harvest hits the market. Sugar is stable; edible oil and meat are stable to slightly up.
