The first phase of the Azad Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly elections took place today (July 27, 2026) across 13 constituencies in the Mirpur Division, with polling stations opening in the early hours and continuing through the day. The Election Commission had earlier confirmed that all preparations for the first phase of polling had been completed, and that more than 17,000 security personnel had been deployed to ensure peaceful polling across the division.

The election is being contested primarily between the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), with the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) having announced a boycott of the AJK elections. The pre-election narrative has been shaped by the traditional rivalry between PML-N and PPP at the provincial level, the absence of PTI as a major contestant, and the broader political significance of the AJK elections as a signal of political direction in the region.

What was at stake

Mirpur Division has historically been a stronghold of the PML-N, and the 13 seats up for grabs in the first phase are seen as the party’s to lose. The division includes the districts of Mirpur, Bhimber, and Kotli, with seats distributed across the three districts. The first phase also includes constituencies in the Neelum Valley and Muzaffarabad divisions, with later phases covering the remaining seats in the 53-member Legislative Assembly.

For the PML-N, a strong showing in the first phase would confirm its continuing hold on Mirpur Division and reinforce its position as the dominant political force in AJK. For the PPP, a competitive performance would mark a meaningful expansion of its footprint in a region where it has historically been the junior partner. For the PTI, the boycott means the party is absent from the electoral process, which removes one of the major national-level political forces from the contest.

The security and operational picture

The Election Commission confirmed that 2,454 polling stations had been established across Mirpur Division, of which 1,241 were declared highly sensitive and 724 sensitive. The categorisation reflects the assessment of the security situation in each constituency, and the deployment of security personnel was scaled accordingly. The security operation involved personnel from the Pakistan Army, Pakistan Rangers, AJK Police, and other law enforcement agencies, and was coordinated at the divisional and district levels.

The high-sensitivity categorisation of a majority of polling stations reflects the broader security context in AJK, where political tensions have been running high in recent weeks, with protests and demonstrations ahead of the elections. Section 144 had been imposed across parts of the region in the run-up to the vote, restricting public gatherings and political activities that could disrupt the electoral process. The deployment scale is also a reflection of the political stakes, with all the major parties treating the elections as a high-priority event.

The turnout question

Voter turnout in AJK elections has historically been variable, and the first phase will be a useful early indicator of how engaged the electorate is in this cycle. The absence of PTI from the contest is likely to have a mixed effect on turnout, with PTI supporters either staying home or voting for smaller parties and independents, depending on local political dynamics. The competitive nature of the PML-N-PPP contest, particularly in constituencies where the two parties are closely matched, is likely to drive higher turnout in those areas.

The Election Commission has not yet released official turnout figures, which are typically compiled in the 24-48 hours after polling closes. The post-election analysis will look at turnout patterns by district, by constituency competitiveness, and by the share of votes going to smaller parties and independents, which together provide a useful picture of voter engagement and political realignment.

Why this election matters beyond AJK

AJK elections are not just provincial events. They are watched closely in Islamabad, in New Delhi, and in the broader diplomatic ecosystem because of the political and strategic significance of the region. The political composition of the AJK government affects how the region is governed, how the Kashmir dispute is positioned in the public discourse, and how the relationship between AJK and the federal government is structured.

For the federal government, the election outcome is a signal of its political standing in a strategically important region. A PML-N win in AJK would reinforce the federal coalition’s position; a competitive PPP showing would give the PPP leverage in the broader national political conversation. The PTI boycott, which is consistent with the party’s broader posture of opposition to the current federal arrangement, removes a major national-level force from the contest and shapes the political narrative in ways that will be analysed in the weeks ahead.

What to watch next

The remaining phases of the election will take place over the coming weeks, with the full 53-member Legislative Assembly to be constituted by the end of the electoral cycle. The formation of the AJK government, the choice of chief minister, and the composition of the cabinet will be the next major political milestones to watch. For analysts and observers, the most useful things to track are the eventual seat count for each major party, the share of the vote going to independents and smaller parties, and the political dynamics within the winning coalition as it forms the government.

For the people of AJK, the more immediate concerns are the quality of governance they will receive over the next five years, the speed with which the new government is able to address longstanding issues around economic development, infrastructure, and political representation, and the extent to which the electoral process has reflected the genuine preferences of the electorate. Those are the questions that the post-election analysis will ultimately have to answer, and they are the questions that will matter most for the people who turned out to vote today.

For the broader political context, our PM Shehbaz foreign policy coverage walks through related governance work. For the India-Pakistan tensions context, our Pakistan mediation coverage is relevant. For the broader diplomatic context, our Canada FM visit coverage is useful. For the China cooperation context, our China 300k youth training coverage is related.

Source: Election Commission of Pakistan AJK election notifications; AJK Interior Ministry security arrangements; AJK government statements.