The Sensitive Price Index (SPI) based inflation for the week ending March 6, 2025, has recorded a year-on-year (YoY) decrease of 0.87%, according to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
This marks a notable shift, as the year-on-year inflation figure has turned negative for the first time in nearly seven years, reflecting changes in market dynamics and economic factors.
Declining Trends in Year-on-Year Inflation
According to insights from Topline Securities, the negative trend in YoY inflation is mainly driven by a substantial decrease in the prices of essential commodities. The most significant drops in prices include:
- Onions: 64.92%
- Tomatoes: 57.05%
- Wheat Flour: 36.81%
- Chilies Powder: 20.00%
- Electricity Charges for Q1: 18.92%
- Tea Lipton: 14.92%
- Pulse Mash: 14.68%
- Pulse Masoor: 12.33%
- Diesel: 9.91%
- Rice Basmati Broken: 9.55%
- Petrol: 8.55%
- LPG: 2.54%
Notable Price Increases in Essential Commodities
Despite the overall negative YoY inflation rate, certain essential goods have seen a substantial increase in prices, contributing to inflationary concerns in specific categories. The following items have shown a significant surge in prices:
- Ladies Sandal: 75.09%
- Bananas: 30.96%
- Pulse Moong: 26.90%
- Powdered Milk: 25.86%
- Beef: 22.51%
- Pulse Gram: 21.73%
- Vegetable Ghee (1 Kg): 16.12%
- Vegetable Ghee (2.5 Kg): 14.32%
- Shirting: 14.13%
- Eggs: 13.52%
- Firewood: 11.07%
- Georgette Fabric: 10.89%
Rising costs in protein sources like beef, powdered milk, and pulses may pose challenges for household budgets, while apparel and footwear price increases affect consumer purchasing power.
Weekly Analysis: SPI Decreases by 0.09%
On a week-on-week (WoW) basis, SPI-based inflation recorded a 0.09% decrease, indicating short-term price adjustments in response to market conditions.
The following items saw a notable reduction in prices:
- Onions: 5.59%
- Tea Lipton: 4.47%
- Garlic: 3.89%
- Tomatoes: 3.60%
- Pulse Gram: 3.49%
- Pulse Mash: 2.82%
- Potatoes: 2.60%
- Diesel: 2.00%
- Pulse Masoor: 1.50%
- Petrol: 0.24%
The decline in the prices of onions, tomatoes, garlic, pulses, and fuel products has contributed to the weekly decrease in SPI-based inflation, offering some relief to consumers in the short term.
Market Composition
During the observed week, out of 51 essential items, the price movement was as follows:
- 13 items (25.49%) recorded an increase
- 20 items (39.22%) saw a decrease
- 18 items (35.29%) remained stable
These figures indicate that while the overall inflation trend is on a decline, certain products continue to experience price hikes, impacting household expenses.
