Pakistan’s Food Import Bill Hits $6.41 Billion — Why Your Grocery Prices Are Still Rising in 2026

You have noticed it at the grocery store, the local kiryana, and especially when buying cooking oil or sugar. Food prices in Pakistan have not come down in any meaningful way despite the broader macroeconomic narrative of “stabilisation.” Now the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data for the first eight months of FY2025-26 reveals why — Pakistan’s food import bill surged 18.41% to $6.41 billion compared to $5.41 billion in the same period last year.

What is driving it, which items are costing the most, and what does this mean for your family’s grocery budget through Eid 2026 and beyond? This article explains the full picture.

The Numbers in Context

The 12,118% increase in sugar imports is not a typo. Pakistan went from importing essentially no sugar (2,528 tonnes) in the same period last year to importing over 308,000 tonnes this year. This reflects a significant domestic production shortfall — driven by below-par sugarcane crop yields in Punjab and Sindh — combined with government-mandated price controls that made domestic sugar uneconomical to sell at the controlled price, leading mills to reduce production.

What Pakistan Is Importing and at What Cost

Why Food Exports Are Falling — The Other Side of the Problem

Pakistan’s overall raw food export earnings fell 34.38% to $3.39 billion in the first eight months of FY2025-26, down from $5.17 billion in the same period last year. This is economically significant in both directions: Pakistan is spending more to bring food in, and earning less sending food out. The net food trade position is deteriorating sharply.

The rice export decline is particularly worth noting. Pakistan is typically among the top five global rice exporters, and FY2025 was a record year following the post-flood recovery of agricultural lands. The FY2026 decline suggests the production base has not sustained those levels, and competition from Indian rice exports — which India eased restrictions on in late 2025 — has affected Pakistan’s share of premium export markets.

Middle East Oil Prices Add Another Layer

Pakistan’s food import bill is denominated in dollars. Any dollar strengthening against the rupee directly inflates the rupee cost of every imported food item — and March 2026 brings additional pressure from the ongoing Middle East conflict involving US-Israel-Iran which has disrupted Gulf airspace and caused energy market volatility. Pakistan imports approximately 80% of its edible oil, which is priced in global commodity markets correlated to energy costs. As we covered in our piece on Pakistan’s 5G spectrum auction and technology investment, government spending priorities are under significant pressure — food subsidy allocations compete directly with development spending.

The Structural Problem: Pakistan’s Agricultural Productivity Gap

The import surge is not a one-year anomaly — it reflects a structural gap between Pakistan’s agricultural productivity and its food demand growth. Pakistan’s population is growing at roughly 2.5% annually while crop yield improvements have lagged significantly behind comparable economies. The government’s Uraan Pakistan agricultural technology plan and SMEDA rural support initiatives are long-term responses, but the household grocery bill problem is immediate.

The broader economic picture — including Pakistan’s IT export performance, which you can follow in our coverage of Pakistan’s falling monthly IT export trend — shows an economy where high-growth sectors are not yet generating enough foreign exchange to comfortably offset the food and energy import bill.