The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently adjusted its economic forecast for Pakistan, projecting a GDP growth rate of three percent for the fiscal year 2025.
This marks a downward revision from its earlier estimate of 3.2 percent, signaling potential challenges for the nation’s economy in the near future.
In its latest report, the World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, the IMF indicated that despite this downward adjustment, Pakistan's economy is expected to maintain a moderate growth trajectory.
The projection for 2026 stands slightly higher at four percent. This marks a continued focus on cautious economic growth amidst global uncertainties.
The Economic Outlook for Pakistan: A Closer Analysis
The IMF’s report reflects a global economic slowdown with growth projected at 3.3 percent for both 2025 and 2026. This is below the historical average (2000-19), highlighting an uneven recovery across major economies.
The slight increase in growth forecasts for countries like the United States has offset downward revisions in other regions, leading to this global projection.
Pakistan’s GDP growth has consistently been under scrutiny from international institutions.
The World Bank has forecasted 2.8 percent GDP growth for Pakistan in fiscal year 2025, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) anticipates three percent growth. These differing projections showcase the diverse challenges facing Pakistan's economy.
Pakistan on Track to Meet IMF’s Tax Target
One of the significant factors contributing to Pakistan's potential stabilization is its tax collection efforts. According to Aurangzeb, a senior finance official, the nation is on track to meet IMF’s tax targets.
Strengthening fiscal reforms has become a priority, as the government focuses on improving revenue collection and reducing fiscal deficits.
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), on the other hand, projects real GDP growth to be in the range of 2.5 to 3.5 percent for fiscal year 2025.
This cautious approach reflects a balance between inflation control and stimulating economic activity, key for ensuring sustainable growth.
The IMF’s broader global outlook reveals global headline inflation is expected to decline to 4.2 percent in 2025 and 3.5 percent in 2026.
This could provide some relief to economies heavily dependent on imported goods like Pakistan.
Moreover, global risks remain divergent. Upside risks in the United States could further enhance its already-robust economic growth.
On the flip side, policy uncertainty in other major economies could negatively impact growth. This uncertainty could affect global trade dynamics, commodity prices.
 has revised Pakistan's GDP growth projection for 2025 to three percent, down from 3.2 percent.){kind=link}