The declaration by Indian’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi on September 26, 2016, that “blood and water cannot flow together,” marked a pivotal moment in the already strained Indo-Pak relations.
As Modi hinted at revoking India’s policy of restraint, fears surged across Pakistan regarding a potential chokehold on the Indus River system, the country’s agricultural backbone.
Understanding the Legal Backbone: The Indus Waters Treaty
The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, brokered by the World Bank, is a cornerstone agreement that governs water-sharing between India and Pakistan. Under this treaty:
- Pakistan receives unrestricted access to the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.
- India retains rights over the eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
- India is allowed limited usage of the western rivers for non-consumptive purposes like hydroelectricity, transport, and irrigation under strict limitations.
Despite the recurring conflicts between the two nations, the IWT has withstood the test of time, surviving multiple wars and diplomatic freezes. However, India’s increasing focus on hydro-infrastructure projects is testing the treaty’s limits.
Strategic Leverage or Legal Overreach? India’s Hydroelectric Ambitions
India is currently pursuing an aggressive development plan, building multiple run-of-the-river hydroelectric projects on the western rivers. These include:
- Baglihar Dam (Chenab): 450 MW
- Salal Dam (Chenab): 690 MW
- Kishanganga Project (Jhelum tributary): 330 MW
- Upcoming Projects: Bursar (1,020 MW), Pakal Dul (1,000 MW), and Sawalkot (1,856 MW)
These projects, while technically permissible under the IWT, grant India the ability to regulate flow timings, a leverage that can be wielded during times of heightened tensions. This “delaying tactic” doesn’t violate the treaty per se, but it undermines its spirit, particularly during critical crop seasons in Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Agricultural Vulnerability: A Nation Held Hostage by Water Flow
Pakistan is the 4th largest water-stressed country in the world. Its economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, which in turn is dependent on the timely availability of water from the Indus River system.
- Khareef (summer crops): Sowing begins in June-July
- Rabi (winter crops): Sowing starts in October-November
With Chenab’s water levels dropping to record lows in recent years, millions of Pakistani farmers in districts like Sialkot, Gujrat, and Gujranwala face existential threats.
While nationalistic voices in India have called for terminating the IWT and diverting western rivers, the geophysical realities render such ambitions futile. The Karakoram and Himalayan ranges form natural fortresses around the Indus basin.
- Tunneling through hundreds of kilometers of treacherous mountains
- Financial investments surpassing $100 billion
- Technological feats beyond current capabilities
As an example, the Gotthard Base Tunnel, the world’s longest tunnel at 57 kilometers, took over two decades and cost $12 billion. To replicate this on the Indus would mean engineering a tunnel five to six times longer—a virtual impossibility.
International Commitments and Political Repercussions
India has been a signatory to multiple international water agreements.
- The Helsinki Rules (1966)
- The UN Convention on the Law of Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (1997)
- Berlin Rules on Water Resources (2004)
Any unilateral revocation of the IWT would not only isolate India diplomatically but also erode its credibility in multilateral forums. The international backlash would be swift, affecting everything from foreign relations to economic sanctions.
India has delayed Indus Water Commission meetings, refused data sharing, and postponed dialogues citing cross-border terrorism. Such moves stall Pakistan’s ability to assess water availability and plan sowing cycles.
